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Aging in Place’ helps to fuel housing shortage


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As the baby boomer generation has aged, it has also stayed put. And for all the innovations builders and product manufacturers have come up with to help seniors “age in place.” they may have also made it difficult for would-be homebuyers, causing a lack of housing inventory.

According to a new report from Freddie Mac, 2019 will see a significant shortage of available homes here in the U.S., failing to meet needs by 2.5 million units. It doesn’t help that at the same time millennials are buying fewer homes at this point in their lives compared with previous generations at similar periods.

As seniors continue to prefer to stay where they are as the optimal way to live out their remaining years, housing inventory has tightened nationally. According to the report, for people between the ages of 67 and 87, homeownership rates dropped by 11.6 percent for previous generations but only 3.6 percent for the current (leading edge) generation of seniors, identified as having been born between 1931 and 1941.

New advances in information technology may be the culprit, as well as accessibility to better healthcare and education, with the report crediting those advancements as “boosting and extending” housing demand among seniors. The result? The current senior generation has become much slower in transitioning out of homeownership than prior generations.

The U.S. Census Bureau says lost units will need to be replenished at a rate of 350,000 homes per year in order to bring the market to a “well-functioning” status. “Vacant homes increase liquidity in the market, enable prospective buyers to find a match, and give prospective sellers confidence to list their home for sale,” the Freddie Mac report states. “Vacancy rates are an important indicator of housing market vitality. Too high a vacancy rate reflects a moribund market, while too low of a rate reduces the efficiency of the marketplace.”

While this does not bode well for home shoppers, it will boost spending on renovations, according to Chief Economist Sam Kater. “We believe the additional demand for homeownership from seniors aging in place will increase the relative price of owning versus renting, making renting more attractive to younger generations.” If that is true, however, those in a position to purchase the limited number of homes available may well see their property values increase more quickly than anticipated.

Source: thetbwsgroup

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    Five Real Estate Predictions for 2015

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    Photo courtesy of http://colossalplanet.com/strange-funny-houses/

    Expect the home-purchase market to strengthen along with the economy in 2015, according to Freddie Mac‘s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for November.

    “The good news for 2015 is that the U.S. economy appears well-poised to sustain about a 3 percent growth rate in 2015 — only the second year in the past decade with growth at that pace or better,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Governmental fiscal drag has turned into fiscal stimulus; lower energy costs support consumer spending and business investment; further easing of credit conditions for business and real estate lending support commerce and development; and consumers are more upbeat and businesses are more confident, all of which portend faster economic growth in 2015. And with that, the economy will produce more and better-paying jobs, providing the financial wherewithal to support household formations and housing activity.”

    Freddie Mac economists have made the following projections in housing for the new year:

    1. Mortgage rates: Interest rates will likely be on the rise next year. In recent weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has dipped below 4 percent. But by next year, Freddie projects mortgage rates to average 4.6 percent and inch up to 5 percent by the end of the year.
    2. Home prices: By the time 2014 wraps up, home appreciation will likely have slowed to 4.5 percent this year from 9.3 percent last year. Appreciation is expected to drop further to an average 3 percent in 2015. “Continued house-price appreciation and rising mortgage rates will dampen affordability for home buyers,” according to Freddie economists. “Historically speaking, that’s moving from ‘very high’ levels of affordability to ‘high’ levels of affordability.”
    3. Housing starts: Homebuilding is expected to ramp up in the new year, projected to rise by 20 percent from this year. That will likely help total home sales to climb by about 5 percent, reaching the best sales pace in eight years.
    4. Single-family originations: Mortgage originations of single-family homes will likely slip by an additional 8 percent, which can be attributed to a steep drop in refinancing volume. Refinancings are expected to make up only 23 percent of originations in 2015; they had been making up more than half in recent years.
    5. Multi-family mortgage originations: Mortgage originations for the multi-family sector have surged about 60 percent between 2011 and 2014. Increases are expected to continue in 2015, projected to rise about 14 percent.

    Source: Freddie Mac

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    Dramatic Easing of Mortgage Standards

     

    Photo courtesy of ims.net
    Photo courtesy of ims.net

    Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mel Watt on Monday announced plans to expand home buyers’ access to mortgages by loosening up lending standards.

    During the Mortgage Bankers Association‘s annual conference, Watt said FHFA will release guidelines “in the coming weeks” to allow increased lending to borrowers with down payments as low as 3 percent. FHFA, which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, also will help lenders who sell loans to the mortgage giants by easing standards on borrowers who don’t have perfect credit profiles. The move is expected to help open up the credit box to first-time buyers, self-employed borrowers, borrowers who have had recent job switches, and borrowers who faced financial hardship during the recession.

    Watt said on Monday that Fannie and Freddie would not force repurchases from lenders of mortgages that are later found to have minor flaws in them, as long as borrowers have kept up with their mortgage payments for 36 months. Watt also said that lenders wouldn’t be forced to buy back bad loans if flaws were later discovered in the reporting of borrowers’ finances, debt loads, and down payments — as long as the borrowers would have qualified for the loans had the information been accurate.

    “Minor, immaterial loan defects should not automatically trigger a repurchase request,” says David Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “As a result, lenders will be more confident in offering mortgages to qualified borrowers.”

    FHFA said it will clarify to lenders when it will force buy-back loans that were issued based on inaccurate information. FHFA acknowledges that it failed to provide lenders with enough clarity in the past. That caused lenders to get cautious with lending after facing a flood of high-dollar settlements from loans they issued that later turned sour.

    “We know that this issue has contributed to lenders imposing credit overlays that drive up the cost of lending and also restrict lending to borrowers with less than perfect credit scores or with less conventional financial situations,” Watt said. Addressing such issues are “critical to ensuring that there is liquidity in the housing-finance market and to providing access to credit for borrowers.”

    Source: “Regulator Unveils Plan to Spur Lending by Fannie, Freddie,” Los Angeles Times (Oct. 20, 2014) and “Fannie-Freddie Clarify Buyback Rules in Bid to Ease Credit,” Bloomberg (Oct. 20, 2014)

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    May 2014 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook

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    Photo courtesy of: http://funny-pics-fun.com/funny-compilations/home-sweet-home

     

    MCLEAN, VA–(Marketwired – May 19, 2014) –  Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) released today its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for May, showing that regular supply and demand forces continue to produce unexpected results as the housing recovery readies to shift into a higher gear during the spring home buying season. The complete May 2014 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook and forecast table are available here.

    Outlook Highlights

    • Projecting new home construction to increase by 18 percent, and house price appreciation moderating to an annual growth of 5 percent in 2014.
    • Maintaining new and existing home sales at 5.5 million for 2014, the same as for 2013, as the inventory of homes available for sale remains low in many markets.
    • Single-family originations are expected to drop about 35 percent in 2014 relative to 2013, based on the large decline in refinance volume. Refinance is expected to represent about 40 percent of this year’s originations, down from about 60 percent in 2013.
    • While net household formation continues to increase, the overall level remains lower than what would be expected; stronger job and income growth are necessary to support additional household formation.
    • Expect the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to gradually rise higher, ending the year around 4.6 percent. We expect fixed rates to rise gradually during the second half of the year in part as a result of the Federal Reserve’s “tapering” of net MBS acquisitions.

    Quote
    Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.

    “The housing recovery is struggling to shift into a higher gear, and obviously there are various imbalances holding this back from happening, but at the heart of the matter it comes down to jobs. Housing needs stronger, and just as important, sustained levels of job creation to get the housing engine firing on all cylinders. April’s jobs numbers were encouraging, and nothing will solve the supply and demand factors faster than keeping employment growth going. Until we see this happening, we’re revising our forecast lower in several areas on an annualized basis. While we still see an improving trajectory for the housing market, we’re pushing it out a few months from our earlier forecast because we expect GDP growth to pick up in the final three quarters of the year from what was clearly a dismal first quarter reading.”

    Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation’s residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in four home borrowers and is one of the largest sources of financing for multifamily housing. Additional information is available at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blogFreddieMac.com/blog.

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    Better Days Ahead in Housing, Freddie Says

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    Photo courtesy of: http://onepicinspires.blogspot.com/

    The housing market is stronger today than at any point since the Great Recession and has made progress in several key areas after hitting bottom in 2009, Freddie Mac reports in a blog post looking at the state of the housing market heading into spring.

    Home sales are up 13 percent since their low point, Freddie Mac reports. Frank Notaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, predicts that home sales will rise about 3 percent in 2014.

    Also, the agency reports that housing starts are up 50 percent since hitting bottom. Freddie Mac is predicting a nearly 20 percent increase in new-housing starts in 2014, “which will begin to help ease tight inventories in many markets.”

    Housing prices have also been on the upswing, about 16 percent higher than their bottom in 2009, Freddie Mac reports. They expect home values to continue to rise this year, but at a more moderate 5 percent pace. Also, researchers say many markets are still posting housing values that are below their 2006 peaks.

    Freddie Mac is forecasting mortgage rates to remain near their historic lows this year, but rates are expected to rise about a half-percentage point during the year to around a 5 percent average by the end of the year.

    Source: “After Winter Chill, Time to Spring Forward,” Freddie Mac (April 10, 2014)
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    4 Keys to Real Estate Recovery

    Photo Courtesy of: http://onepicinspires.blogspot.com/
    Photo Courtesy of: http://onepicinspires.blogspot.com/

    In order to have a fully recovered housing market and economic recovery, economists point to the need for four positive indicators:

    1. A healthy job market with low stable unemployment;

    2. Mortgage delinquencies that have returned to historical averages;

    3. Home prices consistent with an affordable mortgage payment–to–income ratio; and

    4. Home sales that are in the range of historical norms.

    So, is the housing market inching closer?

    Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for January takes a look at how the housing market is performing among these four indicators. Economists note that the unemployment rate — while inching down — still remains high at 6.7 percent. Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies have fallen to 5.88 percent — nearly half of their peak rate but still higher than the national average of about 2 percent, Freddie notes.

    Home prices still have some room to grow without outpacing income growth, economists say.

    “From 1999–2006, mortgage payments on a hypothetical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would have increased by 50 percent more than income growth,” Freddie Mac notes in the report. “Currently, payment-to-income ratios are only 60 percent of the level we had in 1999, suggesting room for continued housing growth.”

    Finally, home sales have risen over the past two years but remain below levels from a nearly a decade ago. Home sales, historically, average a rate of about 6 percent of the housing stock every year. They dropped to 4 percent during the housing crisis. Economists are predicting a 5.7 percent pace in 2014.

    “As we start 2014, the housing recovery continues its steady pace,” Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “House-price gains will likely moderate from last year’s pace but rise about 5 percent in national indexes. Home sales, as well as other key indicators, continue to trend in the right direction, although in some markets we are seeing the sales recovery strengthen while many others remain weak.”

    Source: Freddie Mac and “Are We There Yet? Freddie Mac Says Recovery Has a Ways to Go,” Mortgage News Daily (Jan. 16, 2014)

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    Housing Affordability Declines as Interest Rates Go UP

    Picture courtesy of http://www.treadstonemortgage.com/
    Picture courtesy of http://www.treadstonemortgage.com/

    The majority of housing markets remain affordable to the average family, but rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices are causing more families to have to stretch financially, according to Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for December.

    “Rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices over the past six months are making it more challenging for the typical family to purchase a home without stretching beyond their means, especially in the Northeast and along the Pacific Coast,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Like most, we expect mortgage rates to rise over the coming year, so it’s critical we start to see more job gains and income growth in the coming year. This will help to keep payment-to-income ratios in balance — an important factor not only for first-time buyers but for sustaining homeownership levels among existing owners.”

    According to Freddie Mac’s report, more than 70 percent of the nation’s housing stock remained affordable to the typical family in the third quarter at a 4.4 percent interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. However, that percentage decreases to about 63 percent at a 5 percent mortgage rate;  55 percent at a 6 percent interest rate; and 35 percent at a 7 percent interest rate.

    Source: Freddie Mac

     

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    Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise

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    Photo credit: http://onepicinspires.blogspot.com/2013/01/strange-and-unusual-houses-around-world.html

    Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey(R) (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates continuing to trend higher for the week on more market speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce future bond purchases following June’s strong employment report.

    News Facts

    • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.51 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending July 11, 2013, up from last week when it averaged 4.29 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.56 percent.
    • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.53 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.39 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.86 percent.
    • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.10 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.74 percent.
    • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.66 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, unchanged from last week. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.69 percent.

    Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for the Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

     

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    It’s Not Over: Report Warns Shadow Inventory Threat Remains

     

    Home for sale cheap, might need a little paint. Photo credit: http://funnychill.com/
    Home for sale cheap, might need a little paint.
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    Foreclosures have been falling in recent months, but two government watchdogs warn that the foreclosure crisis isn’t over yet. About 1.7 million borrowers have missed more than one payment on their government-backed mortgages, according to a newly released report by the inspectors general of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    The shadow inventory is made up of loans that have been delinquent for at least 90 days. If these delinquent loans become foreclosures, they could pose significant financial challenges to mortgage giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or other federal housing agencies, the report notes.

    “Not only are current REO inventory levels elevated … they may rise over the next several years depending on the number of shadow inventory properties that are ultimately foreclosed on,” the report stated.

    According to the report, the shadow inventory is more than seven times the inventory of REOs that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD currently own.

    “Even a fraction of the shadow inventory falling into foreclosure could considerably swell … inventories of REO properties,” the report notes.

    Source: “‘Shadow’ homes could burden U.S. housing agencies: report,” Reuters (May 31, 2013)

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