FreddieMac | Nevada County

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In order to have a fully recovered housing market and economic recovery, economists point to the need for four positive indicators:

1. A healthy job market with low stable unemployment;

2. Mortgage delinquencies that have returned to historical averages;

3. Home prices consistent with an affordable mortgage payment–to–income ratio; and

4. Home sales that are in the range of historical norms.

So, is the housing market inching closer?

Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for January takes a look at how the housing market is performing among these four indicators. Economists note that the unemployment rate — while inching down — still remains high at 6.7 percent. Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies have fallen to 5.88 percent — nearly half of their peak rate but still higher than the national average of about 2 percent, Freddie notes.

Home prices still have some room to grow without outpacing income growth, economists say.

“From 1999–2006, mortgage payments on a hypothetical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would have increased by 50 percent more than income growth,” Freddie Mac notes in the report. “Currently, payment-to-income ratios are only 60 percent of the level we had in 1999, suggesting room for continued housing growth.”

Finally, home sales have risen over the past two years but remain below levels from a nearly a decade ago. Home sales, historically, average a rate of about 6 percent of the housing stock every year. They dropped to 4 percent during the housing crisis. Economists are predicting a 5.7 percent pace in 2014.

“As we start 2014, the housing recovery continues its steady pace,” Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “House-price gains will likely moderate from last year’s pace but rise about 5 percent in national indexes. Home sales, as well as other key indicators, continue to trend in the right direction, although in some markets we are seeing the sales recovery strengthen while many others remain weak.”

Source: Freddie Mac and “Are We There Yet? Freddie Mac Says Recovery Has a Ways to Go,” Mortgage News Daily (Jan. 16, 2014)

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The majority of housing markets remain affordable to the average family, but rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices are causing more families to have to stretch financially, according to Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for December.

“Rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices over the past six months are making it more challenging for the typical family to purchase a home without stretching beyond their means, especially in the Northeast and along the Pacific Coast,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Like most, we expect mortgage rates to rise over the coming year, so it’s critical we start to see more job gains and income growth in the coming year. This will help to keep payment-to-income ratios in balance — an important factor not only for first-time buyers but for sustaining homeownership levels among existing owners.”

According to Freddie Mac’s report, more than 70 percent of the nation’s housing stock remained affordable to the typical family in the third quarter at a 4.4 percent interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. However, that percentage decreases to about 63 percent at a 5 percent mortgage rate; 55 percent at a 6 percent interest rate; and 35 percent at a 7 percent interest rate.

Source: Freddie Mac

Please help to keep this blog going
Let us Sell or help you buy your new home or land

John J. O’Dell Realtor® GRI
O’Dell Realty
(530) 263-1091
Email John

BRE# 00669941

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