Tag Archives: housing recovery

Housing Bubble Concerns Brew in Key Markets

bubble-house

Skyrocketing home prices in a few markets have some analysts concerned that prices are on the rise too fast and could ultimately hamper the housing recovery.

“In many markets, fundamentals are improving as unemployment rates continue declining, while low prices and low interest rates have affordability high,” according to analysts for Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency. “However, especially in cities that never fully unwound the mid-2000s bubble, rapidly increasing price levels are a potential cause for concern.”

Many of the areas of concern are in California, where home prices have  posted gains of 13 percent in the past year alone, according to analysts.

Limited housing inventories of for-sale homes mixed with rising buyer demand are mostly behind the rising home prices.

“We believe this level of housing demand is likely to abate once the pent-up demand is satisfied,” Fitch analysts said. “The supply is also artificially low, as recent regulations have limited the pace of foreclosure sales and the large percentage of underwater borrowers continues to hope for future price increases to be able to sell their homes at a profit.”

Source: “A new bubble forecasted in key real estate markets,” HousingWire (May 29, 2013)

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When Will Housing Come Back in California? Five Experts Offer Their Views

Abandoned Subdivision Photo by Tyson Jerry
Abandoned Subdivision Photo by Tyson Jerry

Although the steep decline of home prices in California ended in spring 2009, the weakness in the housing market after the expiration of federal tax credits for home buyers last year has led to some speculation as to whether the recovery is sustainable.  Five experts, including Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist for the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, were asked to provide their view on the state of real estate and what they think is needed to get the housing market moving again

• In terms of home prices, the experts differed slightly with the majority predicting that home prices will remain flat throughout 2011.  Ms. Appleton-Young predicts home prices will rise 2 percent this year, while a foreclosure expert predicts housing prices to decline 5 percent in 2011.

• According to Ms. Appleton-Young, there is little chance of home prices returning to their previous peak levels anytime soon.  “We are in a slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end,” she said.  “We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market.”

• California’s recovery will hinge on location, according to Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.  Areas between El Centro and Sacramento likely will not see a return to peak prices for a long time.  However, places like La Jolla, Laguna, Huntington Beach, Atherton, Palo Alto, the city of San Francisco, and Marin County could experience a return to their peak prices within the next five years, according to Mr. Green.

• Foreclosure expert Bruce Norris of the Norris Group believes the market is being artificially boosted by government programs and is set to fall further this year.  Mr. Norris believes the demand for housing is most-needed for a sustainable recovery.

• California’s coastal markets will make a return once the job market improves, according to Emile Haddad, chief executive at FivePoint Communities Inc.  In turn, that will lift consumer confidence.  However, California’s inland areas are more likely to lag behind, and builders will have to reconsider the kind of product they offer in certain places.

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