Tag Archives: real estate sales

Real Estate

Oil Prices Dropping, Good News or Bad News For Home Buyers

Photo courtesy of http://worldsamazinginformation.blogspot.com/2011/06/worlds-top-10-biggest-oil-producer.html
Photo courtesy of http://worldsamazinginformation.blogspot.com/2011/06/worlds-top-10-biggest-oil-producer.html

 

The drastic drop in oil prices could put downward pressure on mortgage rates.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the price of regular gasoline was $2.20 per gallon, its lowest point since a peak of $4 per gallon in May 2011. EIA estimates that the savings could amount to $550 per household in 2015.

It might not all be good news:Lower Oil Prices Could Stall Home Appreciation

“Lower oil prices mean a lower inflation rate, which pushes down mortgage rates,” economists note at the National Association of REALTORS®‘ Economists’ Outlook blog. Indeed, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.73 percent last week — the lowest average in 20 months — according to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage market survey. Taking into account the median home price of $205,300, a 0.75 percentage point drop in mortgage rates could yield a savings of about $1,000 annually, according to NAR researchers.

“What this means for REALTORS®: The decline in oil prices is generally positive to households by way of the gas savings and lower mortgage payments,” economists note. “That savings will boost consumer spending in other areas. But there may be some layoffs in oil-producing states.”

The lower oil prices may prompt revenues to flatten out in some oil-boom areas, notably North Dakota and Texas.

Still, the overall impact to national employment likely will be minimal, since most of the employment growth is coming from many economic sectors. Those employed in oil and gas extraction represent just 0.14 percent of the U.S.’s 138 million workers, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most state economies are diversified enough, too. Even in Texas, which is the biggest state for oil production and accounts for about half of U.S. oil and gas extraction workers, the oil industry covers less than 1 percent of its workers.

That said, some smaller counties may feel the impact more, since they do have higher employment in the oil sector. Those counties include Washington County, Okla.; Upton County, Texas; Woods County, Okla.; Crockett County, Texas; Hutchinson County, Texas; Yoakum County, Texas; and Gilmer County, W. Va.

Source: “Recent Oil Trends and What They Mean for the Housing Recovery,” National Association of REALTORS® Economists’ Outlook Blog (Jan. 12, 2015)

 

 

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Real Estate

Sales Slow But Remain Above Last Year

With the scheduled closing deadline for the home buyer tax credits, existing-home sales slowed in June but remained at relatively elevated levels, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million in May, but are 9.8 percent higher than the 4.89 million-unit pace in June 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market shows uncharacteristic yet understandable swings as buyers responded to the tax credits. “June home sales still reflect a tax credit impact with some sales not closed due to delays, which will show up in the next two months,” he said. “Broadly speaking, sales closed after the home buyer tax credit will be significantly lower compared to the credit-induced spring surge. Only when jobs are created at a sufficient pace will home sales return to sustainable healthy levels.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.74 percent in June from 4.89 percent in May; the rate was 5.42 percent in June 2009.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $183,700 in June, which is 1.0 percent higher than a year ago. Distressed homes were at 32 percent of sales last month, compared with 31 percent in May; it was also 31 percent in June 2009.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said softer home sales expected this summer don’t tell the whole story. “Despite these market swings, total annual home sales are rising above 2009 and we’re looking for overall gains again this year as well as in 2011,” she said. “Conditions have become more balanced in much of the country, which is good for both buyers and sellers. However, consumers find it even more challenging to navigate the transaction process, especially for distressed properties, which only underscores the value REALTORS® bring to buyers and sellers in this market.”

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in June, down from 46 percent in May. Investors accounted for 13 percent of sales in June, little changed from 14 percent in May; the remaining purchases were by repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 24 percent in June compared with 25 percent in May.

Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 2.5 percent to 3.99 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.3-month supply in May.

“The supply of homes on the market is higher than we’d like to see. But home prices are still holding their ground because prices had already overcorrected in many local markets,” Yun said. Raw unsold inventory remains 12.7 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

Single-family home sales fell 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million in June from a level of 4.98 million in May, but are 8.5 percent above the 4.33 million pace in June 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $184,200 in June, up 1.3 percent from a year ago.

Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 10 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in June in comparison with June 2009. In addition, existing single-family home sales rose in 12 of the 19 areas from a year ago while two were unchanged.

Existing condominium and co-op sales slipped 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in June from 680,000 in May, but are 20.5 percent higher than the 556,000-unit pace in June 2009. The median existing condo price was $180,100 in June, which is 1.4 percent below a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 7.9 percent to an annual level of 960,000 in June and are 17.1 percent above June 2009. The median price in the Northeast was $244,300, down 1.2 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 7.5 percent in June to a pace of 1.23 million but are 11.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $155,900, down 0.1 percent from June 2009.

In the South, existing-home sales fell 6.5 percent to an annual level of 2.01 million in June but are 11.0 percent above June 2009. The median price in the South was $163,600, unchanged from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West dropped 9.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.17 million in June but are 0.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the West was $221,800, up 1.5 percent from June 2009.

Source: NAR

John J. O’Dell
Real Estate Broker
Call 530-263-1091

Real Estate

C.A.R.’s Predicts Home Prices to Increase in 2010

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The median home price in California will rise 3.3 percent to $280,000 in 2010 compared with a projected median of $271,000 this year, according to C.A.R.’s “2010 California Housing Market Forecast,” presented today at CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2009 in San Jose. Sales for 2010 are projected to decrease 2.3 percent to 527,500 units, compared with 540,000 units (projected) in 2009.

“California’s housing market continued its strong sales rebound this year, resulting from the continued pace of distressed properties coming to market,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak.  “This follows two years of double-digit sales declines in 2006 and 2007.  Looking ahead, we expect sales to moderate to a more sustainable pace.”

“After experiencing its sharpest decline in history, we expect the median price to rise modestly next year,” Liptak added.  “2010 will mark the beginning of the ‘new normal’ for California’s housing market.  This ‘new normal’ likely will feature a steady stream of sales driven by distressed properties in the low end of the market, coupled with moderate home-price appreciation.”

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“With distressed properties accounting for nearly one-third of the sales in 2010, inventory will be relatively lean, under six months during the off-season months, and a roughly four-month supply during the peak season,” said C.A.R. and Vice President Leslie Appleton-Young.  “We expect the median price to decrease slightly through the remainder of 2009 and into next year, then rise before leveling off next summer.  For the year as a whole, home prices are forecast to reach $280,000. The wild cards for 2010 include foreclosures, loan resets, the labor market, and the California budget crisis, as well as the actions of the federal government.”

Real Estate

California Association of Realtors – California Sales up 12% in July

sales up

Existing, single-family home sales increased 12 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 553,910 on an annualized basis.

The statewide median price of an existing single-family home increased 3.9 percent in July to
$285,480, compared with June 2009.

Unsold Inventory Index fell to 3.9 months in July, compared with 6.9 months in July 2008.

Home sales increased 12 percent in July in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home declined 19.6 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.

“The federal tax credit for first-time buyers played a critical role in the purchase decision of many buyers,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “Nearly 40 percent of first-time buyers said they would not have purchased a home if the tax credit was not offered.

“Because the tax credit has helped so many first-time buyers become homeowners, it is critical that Congress extends the credit beyond the Dec. 1 deadline, and includes all buyers, not just first-timers.”

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 553,910 in July at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 12 percent from the revised 494,390 sales pace recorded in July 2008. Sales in July 2009 increased 8.1 percent compared with the previous month.

The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2009 would be if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during July 2009 was $285,480, a 19.6 percent decrease from the revised $355,000 median for July 2008, C.A.R. reported. The July 2009 median price rose 3.9 percent compared with June’s $274,740 median price.

“July marked the fifth consecutive month of month-to-month increases in the median price,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “This was the largest increase on record for the month of July based on statistics dating back to 1979. The yearly decline in July also was the smallest in the past 19 months.
Source C.A.R.

Recreation

Investors Driving Home Prices up

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With so many foreclosures and all the negative news that you hear, it’s refreshing to hear that home inventories are decreasing. But this is making it difficult for home buyers in parts of the country where there are lots of foreclosures to buy. Investors are bidding up prices thousands above the original asking price.

Federal legislation slowing the number of foreclosures is adding to the problem by reducing the number of homes on the market. For instance, in Las Vegas, one of the areas where the bidding problem is greatest, home inventories are down 10 percent since March, according to the Las Vegas Association of REALTORS®.

When a bidding war erupts, the problem is particularly difficult for traditional buyers because investors are usually cash purchasers. They can bid up a property without concern whether the appraisal will prevent them from getting a loan.

Experts say the problem is not unlike the situation at the height of the housing bubble. “This market is about as abnormal as the hypermarket that we came out of a few years ago,” says Jay Butler, director of the Realty Studies program at Arizona State University.

Real Estate

Banks Banking Their Foreclosures?

bomb
Are the banks holding off putting some of their foreclosures on the market? It looks like they might be to keep the prices of the real estate market from plunging further. Another reason could be that it helps them appear more solvent then they really are.

According to the San Francisco Chronicle

“Lenders nationwide are sitting on hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that they have not resold or listed for sale, according to numerous data sources. And foreclosures, which banks unload at fire-sale prices, are a major factor driving home values down.

“We believe there are in the neighborhood of 600,000 properties nationwide that banks have repossessed but not put on the market,” said Rick Sharga, vice president of RealtyTrac, which compiles nationwide statistics on foreclosures. “California probably represents 80,000 of those homes. It could be disastrous if the banks suddenly flooded the market with those distressed properties. You’d have further depreciation and carnage.”

In a recent study, RealtyTrac compared its database of bank-repossessed homes to MLS listings of for-sale homes in four states, including California. It found a significant disparity – only 30 percent of the foreclosures were listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. The remainder is known in the industry as “shadow inventory.”

“There is a real danger that there is much more (foreclosure) inventory than we are measuring,” said Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody’s Economy.com in Pennsylvania. “Eventually those homes will have to be dealt with. If they’re all put on the market, that will add more inventory to an already bloated market and drive down home prices even more.”

In November of last year, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ordered their loan servicers and attorneys not to evict about 16,000 troubled borrowers or sell their homes until they implement a streamlined loan modification program. This might prevent some foreclosures, but the numbers of homeowners facing foreclosures have increased since then.

Where’s the bottom? As I posted yesterday, there are some signs of increased sales and improvement in the economy, so maybe we’re there and maybe not.